I was looking to see what the Administration’s Mid-Session Review economic forecast looked like. Alas, courtesy of Jared Bernstein, I am disappointed. Did Vought et al. purge all the economists from the CEA, Treasury and OMB? The MSR:
We’ll have to take it that the Administration’s forecast is then the same as those released in April (which were finalized in November 2025). I reprise from this August post, modified to add in today’s NY Fed nowcast:
Figure 1: Reported GDP (bold black), Administration’s FY2027 Budget forecast, aka OMB-Treasury-CEA “Troika” (red squares), WSJ April survey mean (blue), SPF median forecast (pink), Hassett 5% growth in 2027 (teal triangle), . Source: BEA, WSJ April survey, Philadelphia Fed, and author’s calculations.
Given reported GDP growth and the NY Fed nowcast, we are more on track with the April WSJ mean forecast than the Administration’s forecast.